This is a preliminary evaluation of forecasts made for the German Forecast Hub. These evaluations are preliminary - this means I cannot currently rule out any mistakes and the plots and analyses are subject to change. The evaluations are not authorised by the German Forecast Hub team.

Feel free to reproduce this analysis. To that end, you can clone this repository and the Forecast Hub repository, specify the directory of the submissions files in the R-Markdown script and run the script.

If you have questions or want to give feedback, please create an issue in this repository.

Forecast Visualisation

Germany

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Poland

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Score Overview

Overview of all the models and metrics

Overall

Overall cases and deaths separate

Germany

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Poland

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Interval Score Components

Weighted interval score broken down into its components “overprediction penalty”, “underprediction penalty” and “sharpness”

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Overall

Germany

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Poland

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Calibration

Interval Coverage

Plot of the percentage of true values captured by each prediction interval

Overall

Germany

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Poland

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Quantile Coverage

Plot of the percentage of true values below each predictive quantile level

Overall

Germany

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Poland

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09

Bias

Overall

2020-10-12

2020-10-19

2020-10-26

2020-11-02

2020-11-09